## ----setup, include = FALSE---------------------------------------------------
not_cran <- identical(Sys.getenv("NOT_CRAN"), "true")
online <- !is.null(curl::nslookup("r-project.org", error = FALSE))
eval_param <- not_cran & online

knitr::opts_chunk$set(
  eval = eval_param,
  message = FALSE,
  warning = FALSE,
  collapse = TRUE,
  comment = "#>"
)


results <- fitzRoy:::results_afltables_all
fixture <- fitzRoy:::fixture_footywire_2019

## ----load_packages, eval=eval_param, message=FALSE, warning=FALSE-------------
# library(fitzRoy)
# library(dplyr)
# library(elo)
# library(lubridate)

## ----load_data, eval=FALSE, include=TRUE--------------------------------------
# # Get data
# results <- fitzRoy::fetch_results_afltables(1897:2019)
# fixture <- fitzRoy::fetch_fixture_footywire(2019)

## ----load_data2, eval=eval_param----------------------------------------------
# results <- results %>% filter(Date < "2019-01-01")
# tail(results)

## ----load_data3, eval=eval_param----------------------------------------------
# fixture <- fixture %>% filter(Date > "2019-01-01")
# head(fixture)

## ----clean_results, eval=eval_param-------------------------------------------
# results <- results %>%
#   mutate(seas_rnd = paste0(Season, ".", Round.Number))

## ----clean_fixture, eval=eval_param-------------------------------------------
# fixture <- fixture %>%
#   filter(Date > max(results$Date)) %>%
#   mutate(Date = ymd(format(Date, "%Y-%m-%d"))) %>%
#   rename(Round.Number = `Round`)
# 
# head(fixture)

## ----elo_param, eval=eval_param-----------------------------------------------
# # Set parameters
# HGA <- 30 # home ground advantage
# carryOver <- 0.5 # season carry over
# k_val <- 20 # update weighting factor

## ----margin_outcome, eval=eval_param------------------------------------------
# map_margin_to_outcome <- function(margin, marg.max = 80, marg.min = -80) {
#   norm <- (margin - marg.min) / (marg.max - marg.min)
#   norm %>%
#     pmin(1) %>%
#     pmax(0)
# }

## ----run_elo, eval=eval_param-------------------------------------------------
# # Run ELO
# elo.data <- elo.run(
#   map_margin_to_outcome(Home.Points - Away.Points) ~
#     adjust(Home.Team, HGA) +
#     Away.Team +
#     regress(Season, 1500, carryOver) +
#     group(seas_rnd),
#   k = k_val,
#   data = results
# )

## ----print_results1, eval=eval_param------------------------------------------
# as.data.frame(elo.data) %>% tail()

## ----print_results2, eval=eval_param------------------------------------------
# as.matrix(elo.data) %>% tail()

## ----print_results3, eval=eval_param------------------------------------------
# final.elos(elo.data)

## ----predictions, eval=eval_param---------------------------------------------
# fixture <- fixture %>%
#   mutate(Prob = predict(elo.data, newdata = fixture))
# 
# head(fixture)